EpiSim Pro

EpiSim Pro is an interactive epidemiological dynamics simulator. It relies on the SEIRD compartmental mathematical model (Susceptible, Exposed, Infected, Recovered, Deceased). This tool visualizes the real-time evolution of an infectious disease within a population of 100,000 individuals over 200 days. A 4th-order Runge-Kutta (RK4) method handles the mathematical integration. This ensures high precision when solving the differential equations.

Technical Description

The application uses a lightweight and reactive front-end architecture.

• Dynamic Interface: Tailwind CSS provides a modern and responsive layout. Chart.js powers the visual epidemic curve and refreshes immediately upon any modification.
• Biological parameters: The side panel lets you manipulate key viral variables. You control the transmission rate (β), the incubation period (1/σ), the infectious duration (1/γ), and the case fatality rate (CFR).
• Presets: The system includes presets like COVID-19, measles, flu, and Ebola. You can load realistic parameters instantly.
• Health interventions: Two variables model public health actions. Vaccination directly immunizes a portion of the population by moving them from Susceptible to Recovered. Social distancing artificially reduces the transmission rate.
• Key Performance Indicators (KPIs): The dashboard extracts critical data from the simulation. It displays the basic R₀, the peak infection day and volume, the total attack rate, and the cumulative mortality.

User Tutorial

Here is how to use the simulator to model different scenarios.

1. Select a pathogen. Open the "Pathogen Preset" dropdown menu at the top left. Choose a disease like "COVID-19" to initialize the sliders with standard values.
2. Observe the natural dynamics. Look at the central curve without modifying the parameters. Identify the infection peak on the red curve. This represents the potential saturation point of the healthcare system.
3. Apply public health measures. Increase the "Social Distancing" slider to 40%. Watch the "Effective R (Rt)" gauge in the header. As soon as this value drops below 1.0, the indicator turns green. The epidemic begins to regress.
4. Simulate a vaccination campaign. Reset social distancing to zero and increase the "Vaccination Coverage". You will notice a drop in the total attack rate. The pool of susceptible individuals shrinks before the contagion even begins.
5. Study the mathematical engine. Check the bottom panel to view the system of differential equations driving the simulation. For example, the growth of infected individuals follows dI/dt = σE - γI - μI.